Amazingly, the Ethiopian occupation of Somalia radicalized the country and accomplished nothing. Now with Ethiopia leaving, might the moderates in the Union of Islamic Courts regain the upper hand against militants like al Shabab? Perhaps.
Don't count on it, though. The US is insistent on authorizing a UN peacekeeping force to Somalia even though there's no peace to keep. A draft resolution was circulated earlier this week, and a vote on the resolution could happen as early as Friday. Never mind that there are no countries willing to contribute to the force and that the UN Department of Peacekeeping is skeptical of the whole idea. What Somalia really needs, the US is apparently reckoning, is more foreign forces to restore order. We'll see.