Sunday, June 21, 2009

Zakaria: Iranian theocracy is finished

Zakaria postulates that this is a "fatal wound" for the Iranian regime:

When the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declared the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a "divine assessment," he was indicating it was divinely sanctioned. But no one bought it. He was forced to accept the need for an inquiry into the election. The Guardian Council, Iran's supreme constitutional body, met with the candidates and promised to investigate and perhaps recount some votes. Khamenei has subsequently hardened his position but that is now irrelevant. Something very important has been laid bare in Iran today --- legitimacy does not flow from divine authority but from popular support.

However, Zakaria smartly acknowledges that the regime can linger for a long time, but diminished and constantly threatened at home. It's lost its legitimacy. I hope he's right.

He also says that the US "should continue to do what we have been doing." Contrasting Wolfowitz's WashPost piece Friday, Zakaria says that George H.W. Bush's approach to the fall of the Soviet Union was cautious and wisely so:

I think a good historic analogy is President George H.W. Bush's cautious response to the cracks in the Soviet empire in 1989. Then, many neo-conservatives were livid with Bush for not loudly supporting those trying to topple the communist regimes in Eastern Europe. But Bush's concern was that the situation was fragile. Those regimes could easily crack down on the protestors and the Soviet Union could send in tanks. Handing the communists reasons to react forcefully would help no one, least of all the protesters. Bush's basic approach was correct and has been vindicated by history.

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