Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Week 12 NFL picks

Now, I never toot my own horn, because doing so immediately ensures a bad week. It's karma. But over the past 5 weeks I'm 53-20, or somewhere in the neighborhood of 75%. It's been a good run. It might be ending this week. You've no idea how many contortions I worked myself into trying to convince myself to go with my gut and pick the Lions over the Bucs. Classic trap game, just like the Kansas City game. In the end, I just couldn't pick a Daunte Culpepper-led team against Tampa's defense, but I have no confidence in this pick whatsoever. Ditto virtually everything else on the list, except for the Steelers-Bengals game perhaps.

I mean, what do we have to work with here? A maddeningly inconsistent Patriots team heading down to Miami to take on the Dolphins team that crushed them in Foxboro earlier this year? Who always gives them fits? Can I really pick New England to lose? (I can't.) Incredibly inconsistent teams in Jacksonville and Minnesota match up. The Eagles, fresh of a tie at Cincinnati, play at Baltimore, where they had their last tie a few years back. Houston, who can't win on the road, plays at Cleveland, who can thump the Giants and then lose at home to the defenseless Broncos. Green Bay at New Orleans. Indy at San Diego. Never in my life have I seen so many matchups between inconsistent, unpredictable teams whose records are somewhere between 4-6 and 6-4. My general gut this week was to go with the home team unless the home team was indefensibly bad (Rams, Lions, Seahawks). And then, of course, I pick the Colts to win, even with all the struggles they've had against San Diego in the past three years, even with the incredible likelihood that Antonio Cromartie will return at least two Peyton Manning picks for touchdowns... yes, I pick them anyway, 'cos they're my squad. Gotta love sports. Go Bears. Go Colts.

Week 12:
STEELERS over bengals
buccaneers over LIONS
TITANS over jets
CHIEFS over bills
bears over RAMS
patriots over DOLPHINS
JAGUARS over vikings
RAVENS over eagles
BROWNS over texans
COWBOYS over 49ers
BRONCOS over raiders
redskins over SEAHAWKS
giants over CARDINALS
FALCONS over panthers
colts over CHARGERS
SAINTS over packers

Last week: 11-5
Season: 105-55 65.6%

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