Friday, October 17, 2008

a minor translation error

oops

Week 7 NFL picks

Last week was bad, and this week is hectic, so I'm not going to give any rationale for these picks. I'm just going with my gut. Here they are.

BILLS over chargers
colts over PACKERS
BEARS over vikings
steelers over BENGALS
titans over CHIEFS
cowboys over RAMS
DOLPHINS over ravens
GIANTS over 49ers
PANTHERS over saints
TEXANS over lions
jets over RAIDERS
REDSKINS over browns
BUCCANEERS over seahawks
PATRIOTS over broncos

Except to say that I'm tentatively switching my pick and putting Buffalo over San Diego, on the grounds that every time San Diego has a big win, then tries to come to the East Coast, they play poorly. See the Miami game.

Last week: 5-9
Season: 53-35 60.9%

amoral realism?

Haven't blogged for a little while. Glad to be back. First of all, it's time to hammer the Washington Post for its backhanded endorsement of Obama.

Specifically, one phrase left me hopping mad, when the Post expressed hope that Obama could transcend the "amoral realism" of some of his party. A clear dig at those who opposed the Iraq War on the grounds that it was a terrible idea. You know what gets me steamed? Being called "amoral" by a newspaper that enthusiastically endorsed the march to a war that's killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Week 6 NFL picks

I returned to earth at 8-6 this week, although it should have been 9-5 if I hadn't let the pundits talk me into switching my pick from Tennessee to Baltimore. Anyway, I'm going back to my gut this week, and my picks are:

Bears over FALCONS: I can see two possible endings to this game. One, Chicago's defense shows up, creates hell for Matt Ryan that he's so far only seen in Tampa (and what is Chicago's D except for a younger version of Tampa's?) and Kyle Orton plays another solid-but-unspectacular game and Chicago aces a second straight road contest. Two, Chicago's defense does not show up -- particularly in the secondary, where they're banged up -- and Ryan throws two 60-yard bombs, while Orton has at least one awful fumble returned for a touchdown. I really could go either way here, but I'm a Bears fan, so I'm going to be optimistic. It's always trouble picking my own squad. Which reminds me:
COLTS over Ravens and Eagles over 49ERS: Each of these teams has a franchise quarterback. And the second most important guy on each squad can't stay on the freakin' field. It's maddening. Indy's Bob Sanders and Philly's Brian Westbrook are constantly injured, and when they're in the lineup, their teams are Super Bowl caliber, and when they're not, they struggle to even make the playoffs. By rights I shouldn't pick either of these teams, especially since Indy is at home and Lucas Oil Stadium is apparently cursed -- bring back the RCA Dome! -- but I can't do it. Indy's D surely has enough to contain Baltimore's offense, and I have to believe -- as a Colts fan, if nothing else -- that they'll squeeze it out. As for San Fran, I still don't believe they're for real, especially after Seattle's rotten egg-laying at the Meadowlands on Sunday. Gotta pick Philly.
VIKINGS over Lions: Minnesota's crazy win last night in N'Orleans might propel them towards the playoffs in a denuded NFC North. This breaks my heart, because teams who wear CFL uniforms should not be allowed to be in the NFL playoffs. Don't get me started about the Buffalo Bills.
SAINTS over Raiders: At halftime, I recommend that the Saints kidnap Sebastian Janikowski, the only kicker ever drafted in the first round, to solve their kicking woes. The team is 2-3. If Martin Gramatica could hit 43-yarders like any normal NFL kicker, they'd be 4-1 and looking good as Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey made ready to return. A secondary would also help.
JETS over Bengals: Hahaha who were you idiots who took the 17-point spread in the Cincy-Dallas game? I should have mentioned that in my picks. Never give 17 points, not in this league. Yeah, I know, even Dr. Z and Bill Simmons got fooled. No way. The bad teams in the NFL are too mediocre to get predictably blown out, and the good teams are too erratic to consistently lay it on somebody. The Bengals have been competitive in their last 3 losses, and indeed in most of their games this year. Now they get the Jets, on the road, same stadium where they nearly stunned the Giants not long ago. I will bet heaping sums of money that Brett Favre doesn't get six touchdowns again, although against this secondary there's every reason he could. Three, however, is definitely a possibility. Jets take it.
Meanwhile, if I'm an NFL owner whose team needs a new coach (we've already got two and counting in this young season), I'd look long and hard at Marvin Lewis. I know it's a sour ending, but just remember, he took the Bengals to the playoffs. He made 8-8 a disappointment in Cincy. Imagine what he could do with a real team.
Panthers over BUCCANEERS: Tampa Bay collects injured journeymen quarterbacks like some people collect baseball cards. Let's see, will Jon Gruden start injured veteran journeyman Jeff Garcia on Sunday against John Fox's crew? Or will he go with injured veteran journeyman Brian Griese? Too bad injured veteran Chris Simms isn't around anymore (though he could become a journeyman yet, and make his way back to Tampa. I wouldn't rule it out). Me? I'm going with the team with the healthy quarterback, whoever suits up for the Bucs.
REDSKINS over Rams: I can't deal with Jim Haslett coaching the St. Louis Rams. I'm picking them to lose every game for the rest of the year. This is like Bill Parcells jumping from the Patriots to the Jets, except way less interesting because Haslett's Saints were never that good.
Dolphins over TEXANS: It's the Sage Rosenfels war! Rosenfels, briefly the quarterback of the future for both these teams despite the fact that his name sounds like he should be a mythical herb that cures rheumatysm and witch-doctory, amazingly blew his chance to be the certified starter in Houston in two awful minutes against Indianapolis. The Texans may be 0-4, but their next five games (home against Miami, Detroit and Cincinnati, at Minnesota, and the makeup game against Baltimore) are all definitely winnable games, as is the game at Indy in Week 11, since Lucas Oil provides no home field advantage to the Colts whatsoever. Could we see a Wild Card push from the Texans? No. Could we see a respectable 6-10? Yes. Do I think they'll beat the Dolphins? Maybe. Am I making the pick? No.
BRONCOS over Jaguars: Remember when the 9-7 Jaguars went to Buffalo and Denver and won in back-to-back weeks in the '97 playoffs? No, no one remembers that, but it's what allowed a so-so New England team to sneak into the Super Bowl and lose to Green Bay. Anyway, since that happened it seems like Jacksonville has lost every doggone game to the Broncos, especially if it's at Mile High. Including two years later, where Jason Elam hit an NFL-record-tying 63-yard field goal. Stuff just seems to happen to Jacksonville at altitude. Denver wins it. And if San Diego doesn't find its defense soon, the Broncos might just take the AFC West going away.
SEAHAWKS over Packers: The battle between Mike Holmgren's old team and his new one has always featured great quarterback play ("we want the ball and we're going to score" aside), so to see an injured Aaron Rodgers battled it out with an ailing and receiver-less Matt Hasselback is kind of a bummer. When in doubt, I go with the home team. How sad is it that Seattle is STILL in the hunt for the division title?
Patriots over CHARGERS: Remember when these two teams played a pair of epic playoff games in back-to-back years, with the Patriots coming out on top both times? No, neither do I, but the second one was earlier this year in the AFC Championship game. Now you've got the Brady-less Patriots against the defenseless Chargers. The winner, therefore, will be Bill Belichick. Chargers fans, you can start chanting for Norv Turner's firing at about 10pm on the West Coast on Sunday night.
Also: Giants over BROWNS and Cowboys over CARDINALS

Last week: 8-6
Season: 48-26 (64.9%)

Friday, October 3, 2008

ooops

On the very short list of reactions we could have foreseen to the Indian nuclear deal, Pakistan has also demanded a nuclear deal. Thanks to the adventures of A.Q. Khan and company, they will never get one... at least not from us. China, however, might be more willing.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Week 5 picks

We're at the "quarter-pole," or so Chris Berman tells me. I'm not even sure which sport this refers to, and wikipedia is of no help. It sounds like a racing term. But football these days, with 17 grueling weeks, isn't a race. It's Mortal Kombat. The team who has the fewest star players suffer debilitating injuries -- or finds the most future star players waiting among its reserves and rookies -- wins. An up-and-coming Green Bay team gets taken down at Tampa Bay (sidenote: Berman's pun of calling this game the Bay of Pigskin is among the best foreign policy/sports puns I've ever heard) and its quarterback of the future suffers a separated shoulder. Season over, right? Oh wait, it's not separated... it's just strained. Huzzah! March on, Green Bay! Pittsburgh rallies to defeat Baltimore... but loses its second and third running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Carey Davis, Mendenhall for the year. Top runner Willie Parker was already on the DL. The entire season of a team that many thought was Super Bowl-ready after its week 1 shellacking of Houston now turns to fourth-stringer and special teams whiz Mewelde Moore. How many Steelers fans had even heard of Moore before the fourth quarter on Monday night?

Which brings us to our picks. So many of the top contenders from recent years are suffering key injuries to top players -- New England, Indy, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Philadelphia, and a near miss in Green Bay -- that it's becoming increasingly difficult to pick the weekly slate, even without the spread factored in. That said, I've taken this upon myself, and I'll do my best. My picks:

GREEN BAY over Atlanta: Well, of all the things Green Bay brass could have feared in the fallout of the Brett Favre trade, Aaron Rodgers getting knocked out of the Pack's fourth game while Favre -- he of 257 straight starts -- throws a career-high six TDs for the Jets against Arizona probably tops the list. Packers fans have to wonder... we had the second-best record in the NFC last year and we trade our Hall of Fame quarterback so that... Matt Flynn can run the offense?! Fortunately, Rodgers's injury doesn't appear that it will keep him out of the starting lineup, so I'm willing to take the Pack at home against Atlanta. If I hear Flynn is starting this game, however, I reserve the right to change my mind.
San Diego over MIAMI: My buddy Erick who plays fantasy football tells me he's given up Derek Anderson as his #2 QB and is going with Chad Pennington instead. Browns fans can collectively throw up now. To think, Cleveland could have dealt Anderson to some QB-needy team (my Bears come to mind) for a high pick last spring and had Brady Quinn ready to go. Now they have a starting quarterback who gets into screaming matches with his top wide receiver while playing the Bengals, a signal-caller who fantasy guys are dumping in favor of Pennington, the New York Jets castoff who can't get the ball more than 20 yards downfield anymore and who is playing for a team that's lost 17 of its last 19 games.
The worst part is, my buddy is right to make the move, at least this week. Granted, Anderson's not playing because Cleveland has a bye, but even if he was, with Miami's ferocious running game and San Diego's amazingly uninspiring defense, Pennington could have a pretty good day, statistically speaking. Heck, I might put Ronny Brown as my backup quarterback over Anderson, if he's available. No matter: I say the Chargers are too good to lose this game, and the Fish have blown any element of surprise they may have had after plastering New England two weeks back.
DENVER over Tampa: The Broncos got humiliated on the road at Kansas City. I should have gone with my gut. Denver never wins at Arrowhead, no matter how much they ought to. Now we get another team that has reason to take revenge on Brian Griese. Chicago blew a fourth-quarter lead and couldn't do it. Now Denver has its chance. Their defense is worse than Chicago's but their offense is miles better. I just can't imagine the Bucs winning a shootout at Mile High.
ARIZONA over Buffalo: I'm going with the home team that needs it more. Two weeks ago we were ready to crown the Cardinals kings of the pathetic NFC West. Then they blow a winnable game in Washington and give up 56 to the Jets. If they're to make a playoff run, they MUST have this game. The latter half of their schedule is brutal. Buffalo, meanwhile, is flying high at 4-0 in a battered division, Trent Edwards is playing like a Pro Bowler, and they've won a couple of games they had no business winning (the Oakland game comes to mind). Long commute, desperate opponent... They're due for a letdown. Cards in an upset.
New England over SAN FRANCISCO: Let's see, a Bill Belichick team, off a bye-week with extra time to prepare, its previous game having been a humiliation at home by a winless Dolphins outfit... think the Patriots will be playing hard in this game?
DALLAS over Cincinnati: There are two ways to respond to a tough defeat. The first is to get mad and beat the tar out of the next middling also-ran who crosses your path. The second is to collapse. Which do we think is more likely for this Dallas team when it gets creampuff Cincinnati at home? The Bengals threw their hearts and souls into the Giants game at the Meadowlands and still lost. If I had to bet the farm on one game on the slate this week, this would be it.
Indianapolis over HOUSTON: A very difficult game to call, to be honest. Indy's been upset here before, and the Colts look more vulnerable than they have since the Ted Marchibroda days. Indy's descent this season really highlights the importance of offensive lineman. The Colts have lost most of their line for the bulk of the first half of the year, and it's cost them badly on offense. 52 points in three games is deeply worrying. Back in the salad days, they'd get more than that in a home game against Denver alone. And yet... I just can't pick against them against the division's weakest team, following their bye week. I'm riding Indy this week, but if they drop this game it's officially time to panic.
Other picks:
NY GIANTS over Seattle
PHILADELPHIA over Washington
BALTIMORE over Tennessee
CAROLINA over Kansas City
Chicago over DETROIT
JACKSONVILLE over Pittsburgh
NEW ORLEANS over Minnesota

Last week: 10-3
Season: 40-20 (66.7%)

more folks against the League of Democracies

Hurrah! Nina Hachiegen and Matthew Yglesias have joined the anti-movement. Hachiegen's takedown is excellent, pointing out how the League is a terrible idea for a host of reasons (no one wants to join because it will undermine the UN, it will unite non-democracies against us, the world's democracies are scarcely more united in foreign policy than the dictatorships, etc.). Yglesias adds a couple of reasons I've highlighted before, such as... who gets to join? Who WANTS to join?

And I'll add one more, one that dovetails with all of the above concerns: how does the LOD have legitimacy in the Arab World if Israel is the only member? Or in Africa when all its African members will be voting to protect their autocratic neighbors?

A final note: conservatives like John Bolton and Charles Krauthammer have been outfront that the purpose of the League would be the kill the UN. Bolton, however, has expressed doubts that the League is a plausible idea, not because he likes the UN, but because he's fully aware the most of the world's democracies (Europe, India, South Africa, Brazil, etc.) do.